Off the keyboard of Monsta666

Discuss this article at the Environment Table inside the Diner

This article should form the final connection between the Water article written by RE
and the Peak Oil Primer written by myself earlier
this week. As I like to stress to many people the connection between the vital
commodities of food, water and oil are numerous. What is more these commodities
cannot be easily substituted and in the case of water and food there are no
alternatives if we wish for humans to survive on this planet. A man has got to
eat and drink!

The means of acquiring food have changed throughout the
ages with much of these changes coming as result of increased pressures from
population growth. As we know when man first climbed out of the trees his main
means of procuring food came from either gathering food or hunting wild game.
While this simple method is the most sustainable and leaves the smallest
footprint on the environment this method of food extraction also supports the
least people in any given area. As a result of this paradigms limitations it was
not long before man’s population had increased to such a degree that he soon
began hunting at an unsustainable rate. This excessive hunting resulted in the
extinction of numerous species particularly the larger fauna roaming the plains
at the time. In effect man had reached the natural carrying capacity of the land
following the hunter gather paradigm. As the population continued to rise
despite this fact it created social stresses and the number of conflicts between
humans increased as there were more disputes over the remaining food resources.

It was around this time that agriculture was developed. This change did
not come because agriculture was superior to the hunter-gatherer paradigm as
commonly depicted in literature but rather this change came about due to
necessity as agriculture could support denser human populations. In other words
this move was not a move of inspiration and a sign of man progressing and taking
a step towards civilisation rather this was a move of desperation on the part of
mankind to support increasing populations. Indeed archaeological evidence
supports this assertion for early farmers were not only six inches (15cm)
shorter than their hunter gatherer counterparts but they also suffered from a
greater range of diseases due to closer contact with more people and animals.
Other negative aspects came from the fact that the early farmer’s diet was less
varied as his diet consisted of a small range of crops as opposed to the varied
diets of his ancestors. This lack of variety in the diet would result in
increasing incidents of malnutrition. ^[1] To many people of the time these lower
standards of living would be seen as a step backwards.

In addition to these negative aspects
described above agriculture also placed greater stress on the natural
environment as more land was needed to be cleared to grow the said crops thus
displacing more animals and even deforestation if forests were cleared to
acquire crop land. Once the land is cleared for farming the land itself is put
under major stress as every year the farmland is ploughed and replanted
resulting in the loss of some topsoil. If enough topsoil is lost then it can
mean the land is no longer suitable for growing crops and it will make the area
more prone to desertification. The removal of topsoil is also largely
irreversible as it can take 500 years to regain one inch of topsoil
back. What is more by planting only a small range of crops the
habitat contained less diversity and therefore became less resilient to changes
in the environment. Moreover this lack of diversity also meant the soils that
were used to grow crops would degrade in quality if it was not carefully managed
through crop rotation and natural fertilizers such as manure.

The
biggest issue that resulted from agriculture however is that it places large
demands on water resources in the area as crops need large amounts of water to
grow.  For example one kilogram of wheat corn requires 880-2200 litres of water
while a kilo of corn requires 880 litres. ^[2]
Seeing as these two crops are one of the most widely grown crops in the US it
easy to see how dependant agriculture is on rich water sources. If we consider
meats then water demand increases by an order of magnitude so if we wanted to
produce a kilo of beef we would need around 10-20,000 litres of water. ^[3]. This large demand for water was one of the
main reasons why many early cities formed around rivers as these regions were
most suitable for growing crops.

 
 
As populations expanded and the demand for food increased the water
demanded also increased since food production is so dependent on water. This
continual increase in water demand lead to innovations such as the irrigation
which can allow more marginal lands to produce food or allow existing fields to
increase yields of crops. Such methods however are not without their
disadvantages however as over use of irrigation can lead to reduce water flows
to rivers, saline, reduced water tables (a particular concern for deep water
aquifers) and water pollution. Another side issue with over intensive farming
methods is it can lead to desertification of regions if the farm land is not
managed properly. It is said
that Mesopotamia (the region encompassing modern day Turkey, Syria and Iraq)
used to contain the most fertile lands on the planet but due to over irrigation
and exploitation of these lands the region gradually turned into a desert. This
loss of land played a significant part in the collapse of civilisations such as
Greece, Carthage and the Roman Empire. ^[4]

For the most part
despite the listed disadvantages the agriculture paradigm did deliver in feeding
its population provided the farms were properly managed and were not
overexploited. This allowed human population too slowly but steadily rise as
more and more land was devoted to growing crops. Innovations in farming
equipment, better crop varieties (for example the introduction of potato as a
stable crop in the 16th century) and improvements in irrigation allowed
incremental increases in yields during this time facilitating further population
growth.

The real turning point started around the advent of industrial
revolution particularly after 1900 when the rate of population growth began to
accelerate in earnest due to improvements in sanitation and medicine that
lowered the death rates in various countries. This issue became more acute and
noticeable during the world war periods particularly in World War II when not
only had the population exceeded two billion by that point but food production
was effected by the on-going wars. As a result of these factors rationing took
place in many countries and for the first time many nations were no longer
self-sufficient in meeting its local food demands. This food insecurity resulted
in various governments placing a greater priority in increasing food production
to ensure they were no longer dependant on food imports and had to endure the
accompanying swings in food price from the world food market.

The
main way this food security became assured was by deploying more farm machinery,
pesticides, synthetic nitrogen/potassium and phosphate fertilizers as well as
improved crop varieties. All these factors lead to huge increases in crop yields
and was later called the Green Revolution.  Once this development, which began
in Mexico in 1943 by Norman Borlaug with the help of the Rockefeller Foundation
was discovered the practice was quickly adopted by other nations. ^[5] As the name implies the green revolution had a
large effect on many countries particularly the developing countries (not Africa
however) such as India which during the 1960s was in the brink of mass
starvation. Not only did the green revolution make India and other nations
self-sufficient and not dependent on food imports it also allowed lower food
prices which facilitated not only population growth but enabled greater economic
growth due to reduced living costs.

Like all new technologies these
innovations in farming came with their own disadvantages. The chief problem
about sustaining the green revolution is the fact that much of the inputs
necessary for this form of farming are non-renewable. For example synthetic
nitrogen fertilizers come from either natural gas or coal which is not only
non-renewable but the processes to make this fertilizer are energy intensive.
Meanwhile potassium and phosphorus based fertilizers come from potash and
phosphate rock respectively which have to be mined thus they are subject to peak production
rates which in the case of phosphate is likely to come around
2030.^[6] The pesticides used in farms are derivatives
from oil.

The other big issue with the green revolution is the number of
environmental issues it imposes on the area. Modern farming practices reduce
biodiversity to an even greater degree than traditional farming methods. This is
because one of the main ways of achieving the higher yields is to use specially
selected breeds that only really thrive under the artificial conditions of
inorganic fertilizers and pesticides. As a result the number of viable species
used in farms has significantly declined making them less resilient to changes
in environment (which is a bigger concern if one considers the impacts of global
warming). It should be also noted that these new strains of crop do not perform
better than traditional crop varieties if no artificial fertilizers or
pesticides are applied. Another problematic aspect of these modern practices
comes from the fact that over time fields that use phosphate type fertilizers
will gradually sterilise the soil thus making farmers dependant on using only
artificial fertilizers to keep growing crops on their fields. Finally these new
farming practices have done little to reduce the increased demand for water. As
food yields have increased so has water consumption.

There
are also large economic implications; first of all such methods are less labour
intensive and more capital intensive meaning that not only is less labour needed
but the demand for credit will increase as more capital investments become
necessary to start a farming operation. Since richer farmers have easier access
to credit it means they can gain a bigger competitive advantage to poorer
farmers thus increasing existing inequalities which will eventually lead to
further consolidation of the farming industry which can further exacerbate the
issue of decreased diversity in crop inventories.

Another issue that can
extend from this last point is the fact that oil becomes more extensively used
as it is needed to fuel the farm machinery and due to the larger fields that can
be deployed using modern farming methods the amount of oil consumed is that much
greater. If were to include processing and distribution in food in this equation
the use of oil is increased further. It is this increased oil dependence that
has made food prices strongly correlate with oil prices as oil is used in all
stages of food production, processing and distribution.

These
factors have meant that while industrialised farming has resulted in increased
efficiently in terms of crop yields per acre it has become less efficient in
terms of energy consumption. ^[7]

What is more like most things the gains
made from the green revolution have suffered from diminishing returns for
example the period between 1950-1984 global food production increased by 250%
yet the increase between 1984 and the present is only 40%. More important
however is the fact that for the past 60 years increases in global food
production have consistently surpassed population however this trend is unlikely
to continue much longer as production increases are barely keeping up with
population growth.

Considering
how it is expected that the population will reach 9.1 billion by 2050^[8] with food and water demand increasing by 70%^[9] and 55%^[10] respectively it seems questionable whether
these targets can be achieved. These already ambitious targets seem even more
daunting if one considers the fact that we are already extracting water at
non-sustainable rates. This unsustainable water extraction comes about from the
fact that many water tables across the globe are falling and once these water
reservoirs are depleted then the source of water can only be extracted by its
natural recharge rate. More worrying is the fact that many deep water aquifers
are not rechargeable at all from rainfall. These aquifers, sometimes dubbed
“fossil water” for the fact they only charge at very slow rates spanning
hundreds of years is a serious issue in India, China and perhaps most notably
the US which is depleting the Ogallala aquifer; one of the biggest deep aquifers
in the world.

Another significant issue is that of peak oil. Seeing as
modern agriculture is so heavily dependent on oil a decline in total oil
production is very likely to lead in a reduction in total FOOD
production which will result first in higher food and eventually shortages.
However it is likely the globe will face problems even before peak oil arrives
due to fact that as oil production increases stops rising at the same rate as
population growth then prices of oil will raise which will eventually lead to
higher food prices. Once food prices get high enough the probability of a food
riot increases considerably. It should not be forgotten that during the big oil
spike in 2008 when oil reached $147 a barrel there was a large number of food
riots. When high food prices struck again in 2011 the world witnessed the Arab
Springs which was a revolution that started because of mass youth unemployment
and high food prices.

Other
exacerbating issues in delivering these targets will come from global warming
which is likely to lead to more extreme weather patterns that can adversely
affect crop yields. The recent drought 2012 in the US is one of the worst
droughts in the US for 50 years and has decimated many crops and livestock in
the region. Considering that the US is the biggest food exporter in the world
(and indirectly water exporter) then it is likely that food prices will be
considerably higher in 2013. If these droughts are a sign of things to come then
it is very possible that we may actually see a peak in global food production in
the coming decade particularly if these changing weather patterns occur
simultaneously with declining global oil production AND water
production.

References:
[1]
= People Grew Shorter Growing Crops (Discover
News)
[2] = The USGS Water
Science School (U.S Geological Survey)
[3] = Reducing the impact of humanity’s water footprint
(WWF)
[4] = Ecology of desert systems, p.277
[5] = The Nobel Peace Prize 1970 Norman Borlaug
[6] = Peak Phosphorus (Wikipedia)
[7] = Why Our Food is So Dependent on Oil (Energy
Bulletin)
[8] = World
population to reach 9.1 billion in 2050 (UN)
[9] = Global agriculture towards 2050 (Food And Agricultural
Organization of the United Nations)
[10] = Global Water Forum